Global EV adoption has been increased by over 60% in FY23. Outside of Southeast Asia and India where ICE continued to have traction along with EV, most global markets showed contracting market for ICE. EV now is a proven attractive case. A declining cost of battery packs will further push EV adoption. As with most other areas, China continues to be market as well as the largest exporter of EVs.
But what if a carbon negative fuel could be produced for ICE vehicles??
Instead of chasing programs around 100% EV, Germany is planning on replacing the existing fuel for ICE vehicles to carbon neutral synthetic fuels. Now that is an out of the box solution.
The argument is while EV and hydrogen cell are zero emission, they are certainly not zero-carbon to make. The mining and refining of lithium, other metals and rare earths as well are producing plastic and composite material have environmental impacts.
It is estimated that almost 90% of the vehicles by 2030 (appx. 2bn in numbers) will still be ICE. Definitely retiring and replacing them will not be carbon neutral. Making an ICE vehicle and making an EV has approximately similar environmental impact.
But what if a carbon negative fuel could be produced for ICE vehicles. Petrol, Diesel, kerosene and CNG could be easily substituted by synthetic hydrocarbons. The chemistry consists of adding hydrogen (H2) to carbon dioxide (CO2) to create methyl alcohol(CH3OH). Methyl alcohol can be turned in to synthetic fuel which can be used in ICE without major modifications.
An economical breakthrough in this space could change upcoming transportation value chain significantly.